Tropical Downpours to Soak Florida This Week

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Rounds of showers with embedded lightning storms will remain possible overnight, especially south of Orlando. Any storms will be capable of gusty winds, lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours. . .

FLOOD IMPACT... Rounds of showers and storms will be capable of locally high rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, which could lead to minor nuisance flooding. .. 

WIND AND SEA IMPACT... Small craft should exercise caution well offshore of the Volusia coast tonight, as winds briefly increase to 15 to 20 knots. . .

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Storm chances further increase this week as greater moisture returns to the area. Storms may produce gusty winds, occasional to frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Repeated rounds of heavy rain may lead to localized flooding, especially mid to late week. Fire weather conditions become gradually become less sensitive through the week, as rain chances remain high.

TONIGHT'S LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR MONDAY JUNE 10

138 NWUS52 KMLB 102308 LSRMLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Melbourne FL 708 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ..

TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON... ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Kennedy Space Center 28.64N 80.75W 06/10/2024  .... 47 MPH 

         Brevard            FL   Other Federal            US Space Force wind sensor at tower 714 measured a wind gust of 47MPH/41KTS from the  South.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 937 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 - 

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots. Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. 

PoPs overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak. Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 -

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop through late afternoon and this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. -Higher coverage of showers and storms from Tuesday onward this week will produce rounds of heavy rainfall and lead to the potential for localized flooding. -Increased cloud cover and rainfall will lead to a drop in maximum temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs near to below normal. Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous. Some stronger storms will still be possible, especially with storm/boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze. Main threat will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. This activity will largely diminish or push offshore through late evening, but there will be some lingering shower and storm chances overnight, as deep tropical moisture continues to lift northeast across the area.

CAM guidance seems to indicate there will at least be somewhat of a break initially, but then showers and storms begin to increase once again late in the night toward daybreak Tuesday, pushing east- northeast into the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will again be possible with any persistent or repeated rounds of storms. Mostly cloudy conditions forecast overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...

Models show an area of low pressure developing along a weak front north of the area early Tuesday, with this feature shifting eastward in the morning. The pressure gradient tightens between this feature and subtropical high pressure southeast of Florida, with low level S/SW winds increasing and pulling deeper tropical moisture northward into the area. PW values rise up to 2.2-2.5 inches, with moisture remaining elevated across the area through late week as the weak front remains just north or begins to push into northern portions of east central Florida. Rain chances remain high through the period (PoPs up to 80-90 percent) each day, with repeated rounds of showers and storms possible. 

Main storm threats will be gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches will continue to be possible each day. Forecasted total amounts for Tuesday through Friday night have been nudged down only slightly, with amounts of 4-7 inches from Osceola/southern Brevard counties southward and 2-3 inches across northern portions of east central FL. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL through the period. While convection will be enhanced during the daytime period, there may be some continuation of showers and storms through the overnight hours. Very dry antecedent conditions with moderate to severe drought conditions in place will initially be able to handle some of the heavier rainfall, but localized urban and poor drainage flooding concerns will continue to grow through mid week onward, depending on overall amounts. Increased cloud cover and greater coverage of showers and storms will allow maximum temperatures to drop to near to below normal values, ranging from the mid to upper 80s for most areas. The moist humid airmass will maintain mild overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. 

Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) 

Guidance has further diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer. .

AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 - 

Showers and storms continue, generally from around MCO/TIX northward, developing along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Will see this activity, and the associated TEMPOs diminish through around 1Z. Then, VCSH for most of the overnight especially from MLB southward. -SHRA, with MVFR VIS and CIG reductions will begin along the Treasure Coast near sunrise, spreading northward through the morning hours, before continuing for much of the area through the day on Tuesday. Embedded lightning storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon, so VCTS has been included. CIGs BKN030-020 are forecast area-wide by 12Z and will persist through the period.

MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft Tuesday night.

FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 - 

Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires.