Tropical Investigation Underway as Disturbance Threatens Florida's Eastern Coast - GLOBAL WARMING HURRICANE UPDATE: 

By: The Underground Meteorologist -- June 21. 2024 -- 3:50pm

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 Originally published by the NHC: 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024


1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles 
east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone.  


Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. 

Only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress.  

For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Local Forecast: 

High Surf Advisory 

219 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .

..HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of up to 7 feet. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Northeast Florida Beaches.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. 

Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

 

Small Craft Advisory

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 220 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 AMZ450-452-454-472-474-212100- /O.CON.KJAX.SC.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240621T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-

220 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Seas 5 to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida coastal waters  from Altamaha Sound GA to Flagler Beach FL out to 20 NM.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

 

Rip Current Statement

Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 FLZ124-125-133-138-220230- /O.CON.KJAX.SU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-240621T2100Z/ /O.CON.KJAX.RP.S.0016.000000T0000Z-240622T0900Z/

Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coastal St. Johns-Coastal Flagler- 219 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of up to 7 feet. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Northeast Florida Beaches.

* WHEN...For the High Surf Advisory, until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. For the High Rip Current Risk, through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. 

Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. 
 

Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin- Mainland Northern Brevard-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands- Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents.

* WHERE...Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin counties.

* WHEN...Through late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159- 164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-220300- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia- Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia- Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie- Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River- Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard- Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard- Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands- 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Isolated to scattered lighting storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon, mainly along and north of the I 4 corridor. The primary threats will be lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 30 to 40 mph, and additional moderate to brief heavy rainfall.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT... The combination of max temperatures in the low to mid 90s and high dewpoints will produce peak heat indices of 100 to 105 from Orlando southward this afternoon. A Moderate HeatRisk exists today.

RIP CURRENT AND SURF IMPACT... There is a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches. Entering the surf is highly discouraged.

WIND AND SEA IMPACT... South to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots and seas up to 4 to 6 feet are forecast today. Small craft should exercise caution today over the local Atlantic with the exception of the nearshore Treasure Coast waters.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. At least a Moderate risk of rip currents will exist at all central Florida Atlantic beaches. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are forecast each day mainly during the afternoon and early evening. 

The primary threats will be cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds and heavy rain.

Heat index values are forecast to rise into the 102 to 109 degree range each afternoon with a Moderate to Major Heat Risk outlooked over east central Florida. It is recommended to take frequent breaks and drink plenty of water during the hottest parts of the day this week.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. 
 

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