Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024


Beryl appears to be experiencing the effects of moderate northwesterly shear.  The eye has become cloud-filled, and the hurricane's cloud pattern is elongated northeast to southwest.   Still, very deep convection is present in the eyewall and the core   of the hurricane remains intact.  

Data from an earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft had maximum flight-level winds of 136 kt and a slightly higher minimum central pressure than the previous advisory.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, pending data from the next set of reconnaissance aircraft. The intensity forecast remains rather challenging.  

The uncertainty starts right away due to noticeable discrepancies in the short-term evolution of the upper-level flow in the global models.  The ECMWF global model predicts strong westerly flow from an upper-level trough that would significantly increase the shear over Beryl in the next 24 h and result in rapid weakening.  However, the GFS model shows a very different upper-level wind pattern that would result in only moderate vertical wind shear near Beryl and thus, less weakening.  

The official forecast shows a blend of these solutions and general weakening through 48 h.  It should be emphasized that Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Jamaica in the next 12 h, the Cayman Islands early on Thursday, and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.  As Beryl emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Mexico in about 72 h, an upper-level ridge is forecast to build closer to the storm, and more numerical model guidance is showing restrengthening.  

The official forecast now shows Beryl becoming a hurricane before making landfall along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and lies a bit below the model consensus. The hurricane has continued its rapid pace across the central Caribbean at around 285/17 kt.  A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern US is expected to continue steering Beryl generally west-northwestward at a decreasing speed for the next couple of days or so.  

The core of the hurricane should pass near or just south of Jamaica later today, with little change to the forecast near Yucatan.  Over the Gulf of Mexico, the storm should turn northwestward as a trough moving over the central US weakens the ridge over the weekend.  There is still significant uncertainty in the long-term track forecast, as numerical models showing stronger storms in the Gulf of Mexico are generally on the northern side of the guidance envelope and weaker storms on the southern side.  The NHC track forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope, near the multi-model consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

• 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica beginning this afternoon and in the Cayman Islands early on Thursday.   Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.
• 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected over much of Jamaica and southern Haiti through today.
• 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued.
• 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT  03/0900Z 16.6N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH 12H  03/1800Z 17.3N  76.9W  115 KT 130 MPH 24H  04/0600Z 18.1N  80.4W  100 KT 115 MPH 36H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.8W   90 KT 105 MPH 48H  05/0600Z 19.4N  86.9W   85 KT 100 MPH 60H  05/1800Z 20.1N  89.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND 72H  06/0600Z 21.1N  91.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H  07/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH 120H  08/0600Z 25.0N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
 

PAST DISSCUSIONS 

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       

AL022024 1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Beryl this evening.  Data from the aircraft suggest that Beryl hasn't weakened very much so far.  Flight-level winds indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite- derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery.

The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days.  This motion should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in 48 to 60 hours.  

Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread increases.  Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4- and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in the ridge. There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of Beryl.  

Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day or so.  

Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48 hours.  However, the system should maintain hurricane strength while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean.  

Later in the forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico, it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT  03/0300Z 16.2N  72.7W  130 KT 150 MPH 12H  03/1200Z 17.2N  75.4W  125 KT 145 MPH 24H  04/0000Z 18.1N  78.8W  110 KT 125 MPH 36H  04/1200Z 18.7N  82.3W   95 KT 110 MPH 48H  05/0000Z 19.3N  85.5W   85 KT 100 MPH 60H  05/1200Z 20.1N  88.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND 72H  06/0000Z 21.0N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H  07/0000Z 22.7N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH 120H  08/0000Z 25.0N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON COAST $$ Forecaster Pasch

Past Discussions

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  17 July 02, 2024 5:00PM   
 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024 500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024 

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z.  While the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.   

Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft missions near 00Z. The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico around 60-72 h.  

After that, there remains a significant spread in the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern United States.  The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.   This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty. 

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain.  The models are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models show a slower rate of weakening than previously.  Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  This part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. 

There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone  will intensify some while crossing the Gulf.  The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance. 

Key Messages: 

• 1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 
• 2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday. 
• 3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches will likely be required later today or tonight. 
• 4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 

 02/2100Z 15.9N  70.8W  135 KT 155 MPH 12H  03/0600Z 16.7N  73.6W  125 KT 145 MPH 24H  03/1800Z 17.7N  77.1W  110 KT 125 MPH 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  80.6W   95 KT 110 MPH 48H  04/1800Z 19.1N  83.9W   85 KT 100 MPH 60H  05/0600Z 19.7N  87.1W   75 KT  85 MPH 72H  05/1800Z 20.7N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N  94.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER 120H  07/1800Z 24.5N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven 
 

PAST DISSCUSSIONS:

07/01/2024 11PM CURRENT HURRICANE DISSCUSION:

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite helpful in assessing Beryl's structure and intensity. Within the past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane.

This is the earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July after Hurricane Emily in 2005.

Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several days. 

After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction, roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. 

After 72 hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in the track at the end of the forecast is rather low. While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl's eye have remained steady at 938 mb. 

It is also possible another eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night, with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said, after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin to undercut Beryl's outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane models, which did a good job predicting Beryl's peak intensity today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the hurricane after the next 24 hours. 

There is evidence of this less favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind of Beryl's track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl's structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for restrengthening at the end of the forecast period. 

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on Wednesday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south coast of Hispaniola.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica on Wednesday.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT  

02/0300Z 13.8N  64.9W  140 KT 160 MPH 12H  02/1200Z 14.8N  67.7W  135 KT 155 MPH 24H  03/0000Z 15.9N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH 36H  03/1200Z 16.8N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH 48H  04/0000Z 17.7N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH 60H  04/1200Z 18.2N  82.2W   85 KT 100 MPH 72H  05/0000Z 18.6N  85.4W   80 KT  90 MPH 96H  06/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H  07/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

PAST ADVISORIES: 

The 2am advisory: July 01, 2024 

According to the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Beryl is 175 miles S.E. of Barbados and 265 miles E.S.E of Grenada and is traveling W at 20 MPH with maximum sustained, wind speeds up to 120 MPH and a pressure gradient of 965 MB ...... >>>>>>>

"BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       

AL022024 200 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN A FEW HOURS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands

* Grenada

* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Martinique

* Trinidad A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti

* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.  

Additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 59.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).  Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados recently reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early this morning.  Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting soon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  

A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  

Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through today. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF:  

Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days.  Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake"

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<<<<......PAST ADVISTORIES.....>>>>

The 5pm advisory: According to the National Hurricane Center, Major Hurricane Beryl is 200 miles S.E. of Barbados and 260 miles S.S.E of St. Vincent and is traveling at 10 MPH to the N.W. with wind speeds up to 130 MPH and a pressure gradient of 958 MB.

The latest forecast advisory: 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Trinidad.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands

* Grenada

* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Martinique

* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Dominica

* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti

* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.  

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 57.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Data from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 958 mb (28.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning.  Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall or core of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days.  Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.