Updates: HURRICANE BERYL Nearing Landfall in Texas
By: The Underground Meteorologist - For The Blake Moia Show -- 11pm, July 07, 2024
The Atlantic 2024 Hurricane Season is starting out with a bang. The first hurricane of the season was a category 5 monster and has now significantly weakened to a tropical storm after passing through Cancun and Cozumel.
It's next stop is now Texas. As of 12:01midnight July 08. Beryl has strengthed to a cat 1 hurricane.
According to Levi Cowan, from TropicalTidbits.com, Hurricane Beryl has met or exceeded forecast expectations.
The official Hurricane Center Discussion:
WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING
- BERYL FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY MONDAY... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...
INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
- LOCATION...27.6N 95.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12
INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
- The Hurricane Watch from San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. The Hurricane Warning south of Mesquite Bay has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Baffin Bay has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Mesquite Bay to Port Aransas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- * Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- * The Texas coast from Mesquite Bay northward to Port Bolivar
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- * The Texas coast south of Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield
- * The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.
- A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.
- Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------
- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 95.6 West. Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.
- Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast early Monday. Significant weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches) based on dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND:
- Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by early Monday. Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area overnight. Tropical storm conditions will spread across the tropical storm warning area in south Texas overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.
STORM SURGE:
- The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.......................................................................
- Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
- Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
- San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
- Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
- Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...3-5 ft
- High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL:
- Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night. Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated major river flooding is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES:
- A few tornadoes may occur tonight along the middle and upper Texas Coast, and on Monday across parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
SURF:
- Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY -------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center, with new convective elements emerging around the northern and southern portions of the circulation.
Tail Doppler Radar data from the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However, the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence of dry air in the circulation.
The intensity was raised to 60 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb.
The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight. The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly the HWRF and HMON.
At this point, time is the greatest limiting factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland. The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt, but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning.
The short-term NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone.
Key Messages:
- 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.
- 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass.
- 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected.
- 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.6N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 29.2N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1200Z 33.7N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0000Z 36.0N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 10/1200Z 38.4N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 40.4N 84.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
The National Hurricane Center issues watches and warnings AS OF JULY 07, 11PM
VIDEO: Hurricane Beryl Makes Landfall as a Strong Category 4 Hurricane on the Island of Carriacou
CAT 5 CONDITIONS: The Hurricane Hunters Saw 184kt Winds on 07/02 During Peak Intensity of Storm
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IMAGES: Hurricane Hunters Inside Beryl
Images Courtesy of the NHC Hurricane Hunters
DRAMATIC AFTERMATH
Shocking drone video captures the total destruction that left the small island in Hurricane Beryl's wake.
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